WHEN TINUBU EATS BUHARI’S BOYS: POLITICAL MASTERCLASS OR ELECTORAL SUICIDE?

---

By Charles Thomas

Something remarkable is happening in Nigerian politics that historians will debate for decades: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is systematically prosecuting the men who ran Muhammadu Buhari’s government. And he’s doing it with the precision of a surgeon and the ruthlessness of a chess grandmaster.

Consider the roll call: Hadi Sirika, Aviation Minister, arraigned for N2.7 billion fraud. Sadiya Umar-Farouq, Humanitarian Affairs Minister under investigation for N37.1 billion alleged money laundering. Abubakar Malami, Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, detained by EFCC over Abacha loot recovery irregularities. Chris Ngige, Labour Minister, remanded in Kuje Prison over N2.2 billion procurement fraud. Godwin Emefiele, CBN Governor reappointed by Buhari facing 20-count charges. Timipre Sylva, Minister of State for Petroleum declared wanted over $14.8 million fraud.

This isn’t a routine anti-corruption drive. This is a political decapitation.

The Audacity of It All

would this have been possible if Muhammadu Buhari is alive? this very question cuts to the heart of Nigeria’s political psychology. Buhari, who president presided over an administration that is allegedly riddled with corruption that investigations have uncovered billions of dollars in missing funds, over N30 trillion in questionable “ways and means” financing, and systematic looting that has left Tinubu with what insiders describe as a “niggling headache.”

Yet Tinubu appointed Atiku Bagudu a man linked to Abacha-era looting as Budget Minister. He named figures with dubious records to key positions, earning Nigeria a rebuke from the U.S. State Department for showing “no significant difference” from Buhari’s corruption tolerance. In 2024, the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project ranked Tinubu himself as the third most corrupt leader globally.

This is the paradox: a man accused of corruption prosecuting others accused of corruption. It’s Shakespeare meets Nollywood.

The CPC Bloc’s Revenge Plot

Reports emerged in April 2024 that Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) old guard led by Malami began plotting against Tinubu less than a year into his presidency. The message was clear: we made you, we can break you. Tinubu’s response? Unleash the EFCC on every major CPC figure with prosecutable offenses.

This isn’t justice. This is political warfare dressed in legal robes.

Precedent and Pattern

Nigeria has form here. When Olusegun Obasanjo took power in 1999, he went after Abacha’s men. When Buhari won in 2015, he prosecuted Jonathan-era officials while protecting his own. Tinubu is following the playbook, except his targets served in the administration that elevated him to power. That takes either enormous courage or spectacular political miscalculation.

Historically, such moves have mixed results. Obasanjo’s anti-corruption drive helped consolidate power but bred lasting enemies. Buhari’s selective prosecution destroyed his credibility. The question for Tinubu: will prosecuting Buhari’s boys be seen as principled housecleaning or vindictive betrayal?

The 2027 Calculation

Here’s where it gets interesting. Tinubu’s APC is fracturing. The CPC bloc feels betrayed. Northern elites who delivered Buhari’s votes are watching their champions humiliated. Meanwhile, Tinubu’s economic reforms have immiserated millions inflation at record highs, naira collapsed, hunger widespread. His claim that “there is no more corruption” was so absurd even his supporters cringed.

Prosecuting Buhari’s ministers might play well with Lagos elites and international observers demanding accountability. But in Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina, Buhari’s strongholds—it reads like ingratitude. These prosecutions could cost Tinubu millions of Northern votes in 2027, votes he desperately needs.

The irony? If these cases drag on without convictions, Tinubu looks weak. If they succeed spectacularly, he martyrs these men and energizes opposition. If he appears to manipulate outcomes, he confirms every corruption allegation against him. There’s no clean win here.

The Verdict

Tinubu’s prosecution of Buhari’s cabinet is bold, necessary, and probably politically suicidal. Nigeria needs accountability, the missing billions demand it. But timing matters in politics. Going after your predecessor’s team while your own administration faces corruption allegations and your son owns £10.8 million London properties? That’s not strategy; that’s hubris.

Come 2027, when Tinubu needs Northern votes and party unity, he may discover that eating your political fathers has consequences. The question isn’t whether these prosecutions are justified they likely are. The question is whether Tinubu can survive the backlash.

In Nigerian politics, the corpses you create today often rise to vote against you tomorrow. Tinubu is gambling that voters will reward principle over loyalty. History suggests he’s wrong.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​