As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, concerns are mounting over the possible replacement of Professor Mahmood Yakubu, the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Yakubu’s tenure is set to end in November 2025, and political maneuvering is already underway to determine his successor.
A revelation by VANGUARD NEWS paper has uncovered a plot to install a politically compliant successor who may undermine INEC’s independence. While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is reportedly not fully engaged in this scheme, influential figures close to him both within and outside Aso Rock are involved.
A former South-South governor, a key player in Nigerian politics since 1999, is said to be leading the charge.
Challenges Facing INEC and the Electoral Process
INEC’s credibility has been called into question following the 2023 general elections and subsequent off-season polls. The body’s ability to conduct free and fair elections has been repeatedly scrutinized, making the choice of its next leader a crucial decision for Nigeria’s democratic future.
One of the strategies being pursued by those seeking to manipulate the 2027 elections is the appointment of a weak and easily controlled individual as Yakubu’s successor.
Names are already being circulated, many of whom have previously served as National Commissioners or Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) without notable achievements in upholding electoral integrity.
The fear is that a compromised INEC chairman could weaken the electoral process, leading to a repeat of past controversies, such as the flawed 2003 and 2007 elections.
The late President Umar Musa Yar’Adua, a beneficiary of the 2007 election, publicly admitted its flaws.
The Constitutional Mandate for INEC’s Independence
Nigeria’s Constitution provides a clear framework for INEC’s independence. Under Section 153, the commission is established as an autonomous body. Section 154 mandates that the President must consult the Council of State before appointing a new chairman, with final approval by the Senate.
The Third Schedule, Paragraph 14 of the Constitution further states that INEC members must be individuals of “unquestionable integrity” and must not belong to any political party.
However, past administrations including the current one have been criticized for appointing known political affiliates into INEC, weakening public trust in the body’s neutrality.
Lessons from Buhari’s Controversial INEC Appointment
History has shown how political interference in INEC leadership can erode public confidence. In 2015, shortly after assuming office, President Muhammadu Buhari created controversy by appointing his relative, Amina Bala Zakari, as acting INEC chairman, overriding the transition process set by his predecessor, Professor Attahiru Jega.
The move sparked national outrage and required significant public pressure to reverse.
When Buhari eventually appointed Mahmood Yakubu in October 2015, expectations were high. However, under Yakubu’s leadership, the 2019 elections were marred by disputes over INEC’s use of electronic servers, and the 2023 elections suffered from failures in the BVAS and IReV systems, undermining public trust in electoral processes.
The Urgency of a Credible INEC Chairman for 2027
With five months remaining before Yakubu’s tenure expires, President Tinubu has an opportunity to restore confidence in INEC. A transparent and credible appointment process, similar to Ghana’s transition from Kwadwo Afari-Gyan to Jean Mensa, could strengthen Nigeria’s democracy.
Insiders close to the President claim that Tinubu understands the importance of electoral credibility. His decision to involve NYSC members in the upcoming national census is seen as an effort to ensure integrity.
The question now is whether he will extend this same commitment to INEC by appointing a chairman with a track record of electoral integrity.
A History of Credible Elections and Global Recognition
Nigeria’s international reputation has often been linked to the credibility of its elections. Former President Goodluck Jonathan earned widespread respect for overseeing the widely accepted 2015 elections, while General Abdulsalami Abubakar is remembered for his smooth transition to civilian rule in 1999.
Even former President Olusegun Obasanjo gained recognition for leading Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1979.
For President Tinubu, appointing a credible INEC chairman could cement his legacy as a leader committed to democracy. Conversely, a compromised appointment could deepen electoral mistrust and risk political instability in 2027.
The Shrinking Turnout of Nigerian Voters
One alarming trend is the steady decline in voter turnout over the years. While 69.1% of registered voters participated in the 2003 elections, the numbers have fallen significantly since then:
- 2011: 53.7%
- 2015: 43.7%
- 2019: 34.8%
- 2023: 26.7%
The reasons for this decline include voter apathy, election-day violence, logistical challenges, and a loss of trust in INEC. The 2023 elections were particularly damaging, as millions of Nigerians had high expectations for the effectiveness of BVAS and IReV, only to be disappointed.
What Tinubu Must Do to Ensure Credible Elections
To restore faith in Nigeria’s electoral system, several steps must be taken:
- Strengthen Pre-Election Processes: Electoral laws and dispute resolution mechanisms must be reinforced.
- Ensure BVAS and IReV Functionality: These systems must be improved to guarantee transparency in vote transmission.
- Appoint a Credible INEC Chairman: The next chairman should have a history of upholding electoral integrity, similar to the role played by Attahiru Jega in 2015.
- Promote Institutional Memory: Experienced election officials with proven integrity should be retained and consulted.
Final Thoughts
As the 2027 elections approach, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. President Tinubu has a crucial decision to make whether to prioritize political convenience or the long-term stability of the country’s democracy.
The choice of INEC’s next chairman will be a defining moment, with implications that extend far beyond his administration.
source: VANGUARD
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