RIVERS STATE: THE LAST MAN STANDING, How Wike Cleared the Field Without Firing a Shot – By Charles Thomas

In Nigerian politics, the most decisive battles are often the ones that never happen. What played out in Rivers State on the eve of the APC governorship primaries on May 21, 2026 was not a contest, it was a controlled demolition.

Governor Siminalayi Fubara withdrew from the All Progressives Congress governorship primaries, saying his decision was taken in the interest of peace, stability and unity in the state. The statement was dignified but the circumstances were anything but.

Fubara invoked the proverb of the hunter who does not speak of everything he sees in the forest “some truths are best borne quietly, not out of fear, but out of wisdom and restraint.” It was a line befitting a man who had clearly seen what lay ahead and chose retreat over ruin.

He was not alone in walking away. Tonye Cole, the APC’s 2023 governorship candidate, announced his own withdrawal, citing the interest of party unity. George-Kelly also stepped aside from the race, leaving Kingsley Chinda as the sole contestant for the governorship primary.

Three men. One morning. One direction.

THE INVISIBLE HAND

The man who needed to do nothing was Nyesom Wike. The FCT Minister, who has spent three years engineering Fubara’s political exile from the inside, did not need to contest anything himself. Wike controls both PDP and APC structures in Rivers State through an arrangement he describes as a “Rainbow Coalition,” and had pledged that his group would produce Fubara’s successor. He delivered.

Sources within the party said Fubara made efforts to secure President Tinubu’s backing but was advised to settle his differences with Wike first. Wike, however, had repeatedly maintained that the governor would not return for another term with Tinubu’s disposition, appears, did not disagree.

The signal from Abuja was unmistakable. The APC screening committee had disqualified dozens of Fubara associates in the Rivers State House of Assembly primaries, while clearing aspirants loyal to Wike. The governor’s allies were stripped out before the main event. What remained was theater.

THE CHINDA CALCULATION

Kingsley Chinda currently represents Obio/Akpor Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party. His participation in the APC process, despite still occupying one of the highest-ranking positions of the PDP in the National Assembly, triggered intense debate over political loyalty and the power equations shaping Rivers politics.

It is a remarkable irony the PDP’s own Minority Leader in the House crossing party lines to claim a ruling party ticket, facilitated by a man, Wike, who is himself a factional PDP chieftain controlling an APC state structure. Rivers politics has always been labyrinthine, but this arrangement redefines the term.

The coast is now clear for Chinda to clinch the APC governorship ticket in Rivers State. Whether that ticket translates to victory in 2027 is a different question entirely.

Meanwhle governor Fubara remains in office until the end of his term, and he has not disappeared. Amid growing speculation that he may be weighing a “Plan B,” Fubara recently dismissed rumours of defection, insisting that he remains a loyal member of the APC. But political loyalty in Rivers State has always had an expiry date.

The permutations for Fubara are narrow but real. He could return to PDP the party that produced him and seek its governorship ticket, banking on residual goodwill from a grassroots base that watched him be systematically outmaneuvered. He could also play kingmaker in an opposition arrangement, aligning with NDC or another vehicle in the increasingly crowded anti-APC space or he could negotiate, quietly, for a soft landing perhaps a federal appointment, a Senate seat, or a deferred political future.

In March 2025, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, suspending Fubara, his deputy and all lawmakers for six months, citing political instability. Fubara was later reinstated after political negotiations reportedly brokered by Tinubu, with conditions said to include working with the Wike-aligned Assembly and maintaining peace ahead of 2027. He kept to the terms. The terms did not keep to him.

THE BIGGER PICTURE

What Rivers State has exposed is the fundamental tension inside Tinubu’s APC: the President needs governors to deliver; governors need security of tenure to deliver; and Wike needs control to remain relevant. When those three interests collide, the incumbent governor regardless of performance becomes the weakest variable.

Fubara governed a state under siege. He survived impeachment plots, a state of emergency, and the systematic dismantling of his political network. That he lasted this long was its own achievement. That he could not secure a second-term ticket in his own party, while a sitting PDP lawmaker walks in and claims it, tells you everything about the current state of Nigerian democracy.

The APC primary in Rivers State was not a contest. It was a coronation with the crown already decided long before anyone stepped into the room.

Charles Thomas is Managing Director of Switch Media Communications and publisher of National Concord Blog