The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected that global oil demand will continue to rise until at least 2050, dismissing rapid transitions away from fossil fuels as unrealistic.
In its latest annual outlook report, OPEC forecasts oil demand increasing by 18.6%, from 103.7 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2024 to about 123 mbd by 2050.
According to OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, the continued growth will be fueled by expanding economies, population growth, urbanization, the rise of energy-intensive technologies like artificial intelligence, and efforts to bring energy access to underserved populations.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Al Ghais stated.
This stance contrasts sharply with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicts global oil demand will start to decline by 2030, driven by electric vehicle adoption and cleaner energy alternatives. The IEA even forecasts a reduction in oil use in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer, as it turns to gas and renewables for electricity generation.
OPEC argues that developing nations will remain the primary drivers of oil demand and that fossil fuels still make up about 80% of the global energy mix—a figure largely unchanged since OPEC’s founding in 1960.
Al Ghais criticized global net-zero targets, calling them “unworkable” and lacking consideration for energy security, affordability, and practicality.
However, climate experts maintain that phasing out fossil fuels is essential to keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
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